As the global energy transition enters its most challenging phase, a synthetic material called perovskite is rapidly reshaping the photovoltaic industry, hailed as a key technology most likely to trigger the next photovoltaic revolution. Is it ushering in the "next era" for the photovoltaic industry? Let's find out.
01 Efficiency Breakthrough: From Laboratory to Industrialization
If the past was the "golden age" of crystalline silicon, then now, a race to achieve "efficiency" in perovskite technology has fully commenced.
In just over a decade, the efficiency of single-junction perovskite solar cells has soared from an initial 3.8% to over 25%, covering a journey that took crystalline silicon more than half a century. Even more disruptive tandem solar cells (especially perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem cells) are constantly pushing the limits. The latest world record has reached 34.6%, with a theoretical limit as high as 43%, far exceeding the 29.4% ceiling of crystalline silicon.
More importantly, the technological bottlenecks for industrialization are being overcome one by one. A study published in *Science* achieved an efficiency of 33.1% and stable operation for 1500 hours on an industrial-grade rough silicon substrate through surface molecular engineering. This demonstrates that perovskite technology not only performs well in the laboratory but also possesses practical potential for industrial applications.
02 Technological Advantages: A game-changer in the photovoltaic field
Perovskite is hailed as the "third-generation photovoltaic revolutionizer" due to its comprehensive advantages in efficiency, cost, and application scenarios.
2.1 Cost Revolution: Double savings in time and money
Material advantages: Abundant raw material sources, low purity requirements, and extremely low usage (only about 2 grams of perovskite material per square meter of module).
Manufacturing innovation: Its core process—solution coating technology—is similar to "printing newspapers." The entire process can be completed in a single factory within 45 minutes, compared to at least three days of multi-factory collaboration for crystalline silicon, significantly reducing energy consumption and investment. It is estimated that its final cost per kilowatt-hour is expected to be 50% lower than that of crystalline silicon.
2.2 Application Scenarios: From Photovoltaic Panels to Ubiquitous Power Generators
Perovskite solar cells, with their lightweight, thin, flexible, and semi-transparent characteristics, make solar cells no longer exclusive to rooftop or ground-mounted power stations.
Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV): Transforming building glass curtain walls into "power stations," achieving colored semi-transparent designs through control of material bandgap and structure.
Vehicle-mounted photovoltaics: Enabling "charging while driving" for new energy vehicles, effectively improving driving range.
Flexible wearable devices: Providing continuous power for IoT sensors and outdoor equipment.
Space photovoltaics: Excellent radiation resistance and high energy-to-weight ratio make it an ideal choice for space power systems.
2.3 Superior Material Properties
Perovskite materials possess unique photoelectric properties:
High light absorption coefficient (10⁵ cm⁻¹), enabling efficient light capture even with extremely thin materials.
Ideal bandgap characteristics, maintaining good power generation capacity even under low-light conditions (cloudy, rainy, early morning, dusk).
Excellent carrier characteristics, making it easier to collect photogenerated carriers and convert them into electrical energy.
High defect tolerance; a purity requirement of only 90% is sufficient to manufacture batteries with efficiencies exceeding 20%, significantly reducing purification energy consumption.
The ultra-thin film layer consumes only 1/500th the material of crystalline silicon, significantly improving material utilization.
03 Future Path: Replacement or Integration?
Faced with the rapid development of perovskite, a key question arises: Will it replace crystalline silicon? From an industry perspective, "synergistic integration" is the main theme for the next few years.
Current Landscape: Crystalline silicon occupies over 90% of the market, with a mature supply chain and reliability proven over decades.
Realistic Path: Perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem cells are considered the best transitional solution. It can utilize the existing mature silicon-based industry chain while significantly improving overall efficiency thanks to perovskite.
Future Outlook: Perovskite will first carve out a niche in market segments where crystalline silicon struggles to penetrate, such as building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), vehicle-mounted energy, and flexible modules. Once stability and large-area fabrication processes are fully mature, it will then expand into mainstream markets such as large-scale ground-mounted power plants and residential distributed generation.
The first wave of this revolution is not "replacement," but "integration," jointly pushing the limits of photovoltaic efficiency.
04 Industrialization Process: Commercial Verification Fully Underway
2024 is widely regarded as a crucial year for the industrialization of perovskite.
Production Line Construction: Multiple 100-megawatt-level pilot lines have been built and entered commissioning, and the planning of GW-level production lines has also been put on the agenda.
Power Plant Verification: Megawatt-level perovskite power plants have begun stable power generation and grid connection, with the longest stable operation time approaching two years, providing key data support for commercial reliability.
Standardization: The industry is accelerating the construction of a dedicated perovskite standard system, laying the foundation for large-scale market access and investment confidence.
05 Challenges and Outlook: Standing at the Starting Point of a Golden Age
Despite the bright prospects, the commercialization of perovskite still faces key challenges:
Long-term Stability: The degradation mechanism of devices and packaging technology still need continuous optimization.
Large-area Fabrication: How to replicate the high efficiency of small areas onto square meter-level modules while controlling efficiency loss.
Lead pollution: Develop non-toxic or low-toxicity materials and establish a comprehensive recycling system.
Standards and certification: Establish globally unified testing and certification standards.
Can perovskite completely replace crystalline silicon? Perhaps the answer is no longer important. What is important is that it is irresistibly shifting the competition in the photovoltaic industry from "scale and cost" to "efficiency and innovation." In the future competition of the photovoltaic industry, perovskite is not only a potential "substitution route" but also an important "incremental route"—creating new technological barriers through deep integration with crystalline silicon technology, driving a technological paradigm shift across the entire industry.
However, true breakthroughs come from balance: only by achieving the optimal configuration of efficiency, stability, and cost can perovskite technology establish a sustainable competitive advantage in the future energy market. When these conditions are met, the photovoltaic industry will usher in a true transformation—a new era of more efficient, more economical, and more widely applicable energy is dawning.
This technological revolution led by perovskite has already begun; it is not only an evolution of the photovoltaic industry but also a significant driving force for the transformation of the global energy structure. In the new energy landscape, perovskite will undoubtedly become the most dazzling light, illuminating our path towards a clean energy future.